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Yakovlev, S. V., Gnusov, Y. V. (2000). Analysis and Forecasting of Narcological Statistics in Ukraine and in Kharkov Region In: Youth and Drugs (sociology of narcotism) (eds. V. A. Sobolev and I. P. Rushchenko), pp. 194–221. Kharkiv: Torsing.
The purpose of the given work is the development of the mathematical apparatus, methods and algorithms of building mathematical models, designed for analysis of structure, state and dynamics of drug addiction for the purposes of operational and perspective analysis of possible tendencies of its development.
The following tasks were being solved within it: the analysis of the structure of drug addiction and finding the most significant factors, influencing its level; modeling of drug addiction; building the system of indices to be forecast; the analysis of the dynamics of the drug addiction and revealing the tendencies of its development; the forecasting of specific and generalized indices.
The research done is based on the complex use of the methods of factorial, correlational and regressive analysis, adaptive identification and mathematical forecasting.
With it the analysis and forecasting of the system indices were done in several stages.
The first stage: the development of the methods of choosing the form of connection in regressive and correlational models of the indices of the narcological statistics.
Massifs of observation of drug addiction spread in Ukraine from 1968 to 1997 and diseases of narcological type among the convicts in Ukraine for the same period have been subjected to statistical processing within the given stage. The results obtained let us make a conclusion about the existence of significant correlation(connection) between the spread of drug addiction and crime.
For further research four factors experiment has been done: factors — “age”, “education”, “occupation”, “crime”; levels of the factors: “age” — 4 levels: 14–17 years of age, 18–24, 25–29, above 30; “education” — 3 levels: school children, students of professional colleges and universities of the first and second levels of accreditation, students of the third and fourth levels of accreditation; “occupation” — 3 levels: workers, employees, agricultural workers; “crime” — 2 levels: with crime records, without crime records.
And the result of the experiment is the hypothesis about the independence of drug addiction from the third factor taken separately, and in combinations with any other factors.
The second stage — the development of the methods of evaluation of the parameters of communication equations.
The given evaluation shows that the most effective from the point of view of the solid and not displaced evaluations is the use of the additive mathematical models of the indices.
The third stage — the development of the forecasting apparatus of the trend functions and some ways of modification of their trajectory.
The trend function is the simplest mathematical expression of the development of social and economic processes. But their use in the practice of forecasting is quite justified in the cases when it is impossible to ground the use of more complex constructions of forecasting or it is inexpedient to use more complex methods. The analysis done showed that the development of the indices of the narcological statistics is characterized by the presence of the polynomial trends of various characters.
The fourth stage — the development of the forecasting regressive model. The trustworthiness of a forecast obtained with the help of the models of forecasting, to a larger degree depends on the stability of the parameters of the regression equation. That’s why the preliminary research has been done when forecasting the indices. The methodological base of the building of the system of models was the list of indices and establishing of direct and reverse connections between them.
The fifth stage — the development of special methods of forecasting. The most important stage of forecasting is the choice of the method, which is done on the basis of the analysis of the requirements made to the forecast. Any dynamic system has that or this degree of inertia, which serves as a basis of forecasting, when tendencies formed in the past are moved to the future with the definite degree of confidence. With it the inertia of the indices analyzed was viewed in a dual way: as inertia of the formed in time tendency of the development and as inertia of the formed in space interrelations of separate indices. That’ s why in the process of the research the indices chosen for forecasting were indices with the biggest inertia taking into account the fact that the collection of these indices was full enough to reflect the dynamics and the state of drug addiction in full measure.
The methods of structural forecasting were used for defining the alternative possibilities of the change of drug addiction structure for the forecast period. They included: the analysis of the aggregate of the existing structural units of the object under consideration and the defining of the new, not yet existing ones; the analysis of interconnections between structural units and the defining of the possibilities of perfection and growth of the phenomenon under investigation with its given structure; the analysis of possible changes in interconnected structural units and the revealing the influence of these changes to the development of the phenomenon under investigation; the forecasting of the tendencies of the development of the existing and possible in the forecast period structural units; interconnections and proportions between them (using the methods of extrapolation); the final balancing of the structure of the phenomenon under investigation.
The research done let us make the following conclusions.
First: the analysis of the frequencies of the spread shows this growth having the properties of a trend, i.e. rather stable. With the criminogenous group of the population the level is higher, testifying to the significant mutual connection of these two phenomena, drug addiction and crime. Some decrease of the frequency observed in the period from 1986–91 can sooner be explained by the drawbacks of the registration of narcological diseases than their absence.
Second: Multifunctional analysis showed that in the last period the model, characterizing such a factor as “work” or “social position”, is correct. It means that all strata of population are exposed to drug addiction. In its turn, according to the model, alongside with the crime, “age”, “education” act as significant with the important influence rendered by the combination of these factors. Nearly maximum spread of drug addiction we see among teenagers, students of schools and universities. Alongside with it we see that the model doesn’t contain the combination of these factors with “crime” as significant. It means that among the students the so-called “criminal inclinations” and drug addiction are not interrelated with each other phenomena. So, the high level of the spread of the diseases of narcological type in youth, students’ media embraced rather well-to-do strata of population.
Fourth: the forecasting of main indices of the narcological statistics for the period to 2003 points to the existence of the tendency of the growth of quantitative meanings of the given indices in the Kharkiv region and in Ukraine as a whole.
Recommendations. The main recommendation refers to collecting of experimental data. Both in medical institutions and through the channels of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, the collection of data (registration of narcological diseases and their spread) must have systematic and homogeneous character. It implicates that the indices singled out must be observed constantly and at the same time it is inadmissible when in definite periods the observation of some indices is absent (that is characteristic to the material suggested for processing). It distorts the general picture, influences the quality and accuracy of the subsequent mathematical processing which leads to wrong evaluations and general conclusions in the end.
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